DSM Forecast

DSM 00001
Published On: 02/23/2021

Question: It's my understanding that the prior characterization of energy efficiency savings relied on load shapes for a subset of measures in DESC's energy efficiency portfolio and that at least two of those measures had significant negative savings, meaning that somehow they cause participants consume more energy not less. Is that the same shape that DESC will use to characterize energy efficiency for purposes of its Modified IRP filing?

Answer: The EE profile was developed for use in the ICF Planning Model for the development of the DSM Potential Study and 5-year Program plans.  Six of the sixteen measures used in the EE profile, specifically heating and cooling measures, did have some negative impacts.  The negative savings are asynchronous cycling of the baseline and upgrade system.  Meaning, some hours when the baseline system is “off” the upgrade system would be “on” resulting in negative savings.  However, overall, these measures do provide energy savings.  It should be noted that the original heat gain/heat loss simulation model used in the development of these load shapes were derived from an ICF developed tool, Beacon Residential Energy Modeling, which uses a DOE-2 engine.

DSM 00002
Published On: 02/23/2021

Question: Can you please provide the DSM program cost effectiveness calculations, including all incentive and non-incentive cost components?

Answer: We addressed the incentive and non-incentive components for cost-effectiveness testing. “Incentive costs” include payments DESC makes in the form of rebates and incentives, instant rebated, and direct installation of measures in low-income communities and small businesses. "Non incentive costs" would include utility administration, third party implementation, marketing, and evaluation costs. Incentive costs are payments made to customers or contractors.  See Slide 17 of the Stakeholder Advisory Materials from Session I for more information.

DSM 00003
Published On: 02/23/2021

Question: Through your new building envelope focus, for how many homes per year do you plan to ensure that the home receives attic insulation plus leak sealing in the envelope plus duct sealing? Can you supply that number from your plan please?

Answer: During the current program year, PY11, DESC has forecasted that the Home Energy Check-up Tier 2 will provide building envelope incentives for 359 homes and the low income program will provide the direct install of weatherization measures in 100 mobile homes.

DSM 00004
Published On: 05/11/2021

Question: Can you provide more specifics on how you arrived at such low impacts of NEEP and HVAC improvements in energy efficiency interventions? How can these programs be prioritized?

Answer: Thank you for this feedback. We forwarded this question onto the DSM staff where it can be more appropriately be addressed. The DESC IRP team will be using efficiency assumptions developed as part of that process as well as any cases specified by the Commission. The EE programs will continue to be discussed as inputs to the IRP, but the actual design, modification, and planning of DSM programs will continue to be addressed within DESC’s Energy Efficiency Advisory Group. For your information: During the 2019 DESC DSM Potential Study both existing housing stock and low-income customers were identified as priorities and will continue to be priorities with the new DSM potential study that will get underway this year. As such, the current portfolio includes doubling the participation in the low-income program, the Neighborhood Energy Efficiency Program. In addition, NEEP will again double under the Rapid Assessment recommendations. NEEP is also in process of undergoing an expansion of the installed measures that customers will receive to include a limited number of refrigerator replacements. For the HVAC program, rebates were increased to encourage 15 SEER adoption and the addition of a rebate to incentivize the removal of electric furnaces and the installation of EnergyStar heat pumps.

DSM 00005
Published On: 05/11/2021

Question: How can DESC realistically reach a 1% energy efficiency target with primarily only energy audits? Energy audits alone cannot achieve energy real efficiency gains without implementation of audit recommendations.

Answer: Thank you for this feedback. We forwarded this question onto the DESC DSM department where it can more appropriately be addressed. The DESC IRP team will be using efficiency assumptions developed as part of that process as well as any cases specified by the Commission. The EE programs will continue to be discussed as inputs to the IRP, but the actual design, modification, and planning of DSM programs will continue to be addressed within DESC’s Energy Efficiency Advisory Group. DESC has not stated that a 1% energy efficiency target could be achieved only with energy audits. The DESC DSM portfolio of programs consists of 10 programs – 7 residential and 3 C&I. The Home Energy Check-up program, which is a residential audit, is just one of the DSM programs. For eligible customers, Tier 2 of the Home Energy Check-up allows customers to follow through on the recommendations made during the residential audit. Four of the DSM programs include the direct installation of measures: Home Energy Check-up Tier 1 and 2; the Neighborhood Energy Efficiency Program (core program and weatherization measures for mobile homes), the Multifamily Program (residential units and common areas) and the Small Business Energy Solutions Program.

DSM 00006
Published On: 06/11/2021

Question: Several DSM measures can provide some of the "reliability" criteria, e.g. Volt-VAR optimization, demand response, etc. are you accounting for the benefits that can be provided by demand-side resources?

Answer: DESC models DR as a general program that reduces demand at a certain cost. The reliability benefits of DSM are captured in the reserve margin as DR can meet portions of the reserve margin requirements.

DSM 00007
Published On: 10/12/2021

Question: How did DESC determine the levelized costs of DSM bundles in the 2021 IRP Update?

Answer: In order to provide more transparency about which programs are driving the portfolio level levelized costs up or down, please see the DSM Levelized Cost Calculation file on the Stakeholder Materials section of the website. Together, the residential and non-residential portfolios have a levelized cost of $0.0378/kWh.

DSM 00008
Published On: 10/12/2021

Question: The DSM bundles used by DESC in the 2021 IRP Update appear to show negative savings in certain hours. Why is this, and how do these negative hours impact the expected cost of the DSM bundles?

Answer: It’s important to note that the measure level load shapes were used to develop an avoided energy cost. They are weighted to develop one DSM load shape that is then used to model a DSM resource and attach an avoided energy cost for the purpose of cost-effectiveness testing.

In order to understand what the impact on avoided energy cost would be if ICF used updated load shapes for the heating and cooling measures (the ones that had negative hours), ICF produced new load shapes for these measures that do not have negative hours associated with them. The purpose was to compare what the resulting avoided energy cost would be if these load shapes were used in the analysis

  1. The previous load shapes were developed by creating a consumption profile of a baseline unit and a consumption profile of an efficient unit, then taking the differences between them, which is why we end up with negative hours.
  2. To avoid these negative hours, we instead applied the savings of the unit across the hours of an average unit load shape. This results in no negative hours.
  3. The energy savings across the year for both profiles remains the same.

Because the previous model used by DESC for this purpose is no longer in use or available, DESC used both the previous load shapes and the new load shapes within its new modeling environment to assess the change. The result of this analysis was done in two ways in order to make sure all of the implications were understood.

  1. Because the previous load shapes were scaled to represent a max value of 100 MW, both the previous and new load shapes were scaled to 100 MW and analysis performed. The result was an avoided energy cost of $0.03192/kWh using the previous load shapes and an avoided energy cost of $0.03183/kWh using the new load shapes. A decrease of 0.30%.
  2. When scaling the new load shapes to represent a max value of 100 MW, the Energy profile ends up being disproportionate to the previous load shapes. In order to bring them back in line, the new load shapes were scaled to represent a max value of 76.33 MW. The result of this analysis was an updated avoided energy cost of $0.03194/kWh. An increase of 0.05%.
Based on this analysis there appears to be very little movement if the updated measure level load shapes were used, and thus inconsequential on the resulting forecasts.

DSM 00009
Published On: 12/21/2021

Question: Most of these resources by themselves won't replace the coal units, so why eliminate DSM on that basis? It could be a cost-effective component of a replacement portfolio.

Answer: DESC agrees that DSM can be a cost-effective resource for meeting customer requirements and proposes to model DSM in all Retirement Study Scenarios at the 1% level.

DSM 00010
Published On: 03/18/2022

Question: It appears that EE and DSM are consistent across all these market scenarios, can you talk about the justification for not evaluating different levels of EE/DSM?

Answer: The purpose of the retirement study is to evaluate the impacts of early retirement - and the scale of EE / DSM is not large enough to serve as an effective replacement of the units.

DSM 00011
Published On: 06/17/2022

Question: The lack of weather adjusted EE profiles is an area of significant interest. Though we acknowledge that there is no readily available source for this data and that this is a limitation of all LOLE studies, we suggest that the Company invite input from its DSM consultant, ICF, who has the capability to do building energy modeling under different weather conditions.

Answer: Please submit this comment to DESC’s Energy Efficiency Advisory Group, which has been working with Stakeholders to develop the Company’s upcoming Market Potential Study and has a meeting scheduled on June 29th to seek input on the EE profile. The findings of this study, once complete, will be used to develop inputs to future IRPs.

DSM 00012
Published On: 06/17/2022

Question: To our knowledge, the DSM Advisory Group has not worked with DESC to create the DSM assumptions outlined in the Commission’s 2020 IRP Order and these would need to be delivered in advance of completing the ongoing Market Potential Study.

Answer: DESC has consulted with the Energy Efficiency Advisory Group (EEAG) concerning the scope and timetable for the DSM potential study. The Company has consulted with the EEAG concerning key inputs, definitions, and shared a draft list of measures for EEAG feedback. DESC continues to provide updates to the EEAG concerning the preliminary findings and status of the market potential study and plans to share the results of the study with the EEAG once it is finalized.